China’s EV Exports to EU Projected to Grow 20% Annually Through 2028

China Forecasts Robust EV Export Growth to Europe

China’s electric vehicle (EV) exports to the European Union (EU) are projected to expand at an average annual rate of around 20% between 2026 and 2028, according to new analysis from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA).

The forecast reflects the growing importance of Europe as a destination for Chinese-made EVs, following new trade agreements designed to stabilize export pricing and ease customs procedures.

Despite potential short-term volatility, China’s EV exports to the EU will maintain roughly 20% annual growth from 2026 to 2028.

Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the China Passenger Car Association

Cui noted that this steady growth highlights the competitiveness of Chinese automakers in Europe’s fast-evolving EV market.

Europe: A Strategic Market for Chinese EV Makers

The EU has become a major focus for Chinese automakers as they expand their global footprint and respond to rising demand for affordable, high-quality EVs.

Key factors driving this growth include:

• Improved trade framework: China and the EU have agreed on price undertakings that replace tariffs and simplify vehicle import processes.
• Expanding market share: Chinese EVs are rapidly gaining traction in major European markets such as Germany, France, Spain, and Norway.
• Localization strategies: Leading manufacturers like BYD, SAIC, and Geely are investing in local assembly and distribution networks across Europe.
• Product diversity: Chinese carmakers are exporting both affordable compact EVs and premium electric SUVs to meet different consumer demands.

The EU will remain a high-value growth market for Chinese exporters as efficiency, product diversity, and brand strength continue to improve.

Cui Dongshu, CPCA

China’s Expanding Automotive Footprint

China’s automotive exports reached record levels in 2025, driven largely by electric and hybrid vehicle sales.

According to CPCA data:

• Total passenger car exports exceeded 5 million units.
• EV exports accounted for a rapidly growing share of that total.
• China became the world’s largest vehicle exporter, overtaking Japan and Germany.

While domestic demand in China has stabilized, exports now form the core growth engine of the industry’s global strategy.

Challenges and Market Dynamics

Despite a positive outlook, several factors could shape the pace of export expansion:

• Regulatory changes in Europe may affect the competitiveness of imported EVs.
• Tariff adjustments could reappear depending on geopolitical developments.
• Local European production by Chinese automakers might accelerate to mitigate trade risks.

Still, the CPCA remains optimistic that China’s scale advantage, technological innovation, and cost leadership will sustain long-term export growth.